The Road Never Travelled 2020 to 2030
In the age of automation and unprecedented climate change, I look at ten trends to watch from rapid urbanisation to lifelong learning, all with a few silver linings….
For new readers, welcome to The Transatlantic Post a monthly editorial on innovation & innovation. With occasional British satire. By Kajal
I wrote the first Transatlantic Post exactly three years ago — the UK had voted for Brexit and Trump had just won the US election. Today, the tides have once again turned on both sides of the Atlantic.
You’d be forgiven for not feeling chirpy about the next decade. We are navigating new territory with the changing climate, technology and ourselves in this new context. We will need the best of human ingenuity to solve seemingly impossible challenges. As we look back on 2019 and ahead to the next decade, a few notes of cautious optimism…
A Round Up of 2019
In January in Sharks & Startups we looked at the rise of corporate innovation in response to disruptive startups particularly in AI and machine learning.
In Aphrodite 2.0 we caught a glimpse of the hypergrowth femtech market, innovations in fertility and maternal care might mean we could have designer kids into our fifties in the near future.
In Is the Grass Greener from the other side? we explored the cannabis revolution worth over £100bn and discovered Snoop Dogg’s £46 million pot fund Verde capital.
In The Price of the Bigger Apple we switched our attention to New York city and whether it could still be home to superheroes in the arts and startups with its rapid gentrification. You might still (just) be able to make it there if you aren’t Sinatra.
Over the summer, we investigated the rise of Deeptech in Deeptech, Luke Skywalker or Darth Vadar? and with history lessons from the creation of the Atomic Bomb, we hope it will be the creator rather than the destroyer of worlds.
There were more promising innovations in the food world in A Burger of Possibilities — the New Era of Food where a wave of new startups are helping to tackle the 63 million tonnes of food waste. A BBC calculator also helped us figure out foods that were least harmful to the environment — beans, nuts and tofu folks.
In Q4, we wrote about the Rise of the Graduate Impact Entrepreneur from a Campervan at the London School of Economics. And this is where I see the most promise in the next decade, young businesses led by profit and purpose.
Necessity is the mother of invention… 2020 -> 2030
As we look towards the next decade and what is now commonly referred to as the fourth industrial revolution, what can we expect?
- Shifting demographics will give rise to a new host of product and service innovations, in particular for the elderly. By 2030, the world population will reach 8.5 billion and 1 billion of those will be over 65.
- Urbanisation will accelerate with more than 43 cities with 10 million or more people by 2030 especially in India and China. Cities will need to become smarter especially on transport to cope with the demand.
- Lifelong learning will be the norm both because we’re living longer and also as we adapt to non-linear careers in the digital age where we can work flexibly from anywhere in the world.
- Skills will be valued more than degrees and we could see bigger shifts towards the German style apprenticeship model. As automation replaces certain sectors, human skills such as creativity and EQ will see increasing demand.
5. A circular economy will be the new norm where we recycle, upcycle and reuse. It will reshape how we buy our products — the secondhand market is on track to more than double over the next five years, from $24 billion to $51 billion.
6. Mental health and wellbeing will continue to advance in our schools and workplaces — the World Health Organisation forecasts depression to be the greatest health risk by 2030 in particular in the West.
7. Renewable energies (wind, hydra, solar) will help us to fight climate change and in tandem reduce our reliance on fossil fuels — 85% of our electricity needs to be produced from renewable energy by 2030 to help halve our carbon emissions.
8. Food demand will continue to increase creating huge shifts in the way we produce and consume food. From changes in agritech and greater availability of plant-based foods, the food innovation opportunity will be worth £700bn by 2030.
9. Consumers will continue to put pressures on businesses to behave more responsibly — pushing them towards business model innovation that takes account of both negative and positive externalities.
10. Trust, truth & transparency will hold higher and higher premiums as we continue to grapple between real and fake news and its associated impact on our fragile political landscapes.
Some inspiration for 2020
You’ll note that I deliberately omitted climate change because that could have been a 50 point list on its own and will, above all else, be the defining challenge of the next few decades. In his original and rather grim article in 2017 “The Uninhabitable Earth” David Wallace Wells painted a real and raw picture of climate change. This year he wrote a cautiously optimistic update :-
“The question of how bad things will get is not, actually, a test of the science; it is a bet on human activity. How much will we do to forestall disaster and how quickly?”
After all I have seen and read on innovation and entrepreneurship, on changemakers all over the world over the past few years, I believe we can bet on ourselves.
And its not just about Greta. I recently watched The Long Swim, Lewis Pugh: Achieving the Impossible, about an endurance swimmer who swims across oceans to raise awareness of climate change. And also take a look at the brilliant documentary Chasing Ice by James Balog.
While we may not all be swimming oceans, climbing ice caps and traversing the Atlantic on boats, I do know that the collective awareness is changing the way we think and live. Will our changes be quick enough? There is no definitive answer but when the odds are stacked against us is where the breakthroughs happen.
On that note, a very happy new year to all of you. Thank you for reading do please share with friends if you enjoy the Post, I’d love for more of you to read in 2020 as I continue to write about the best of innovation and entrepreneurship to tackle our most pressing challenges on both sides of the Atlantic.
“The future depends on what we do in the present” Gandhi
Sincerely, yours,
Kajal
t: @kajalnyclon | w: transatlanticpost.com
Holiday Reading
Klarna launches a £100mn impact fund (Sifted)
We highlighted in the last issue of the Post a new class of graduate impact entrepreneurs and Klarna’s cofounder is giving them a helping hand. They are launching the biggest impact fund £100mn for early-stage tech startups in Europe. The fund wants to encourage other investors to divert more money into impactful startups and will be keeping track of how its portfolio companies are tackling the world’s greatest challenges.
Don’t Squander the Techno-Revolution (Project Syndicate)
Professor Christopher Pissarides at the LSE and Jacques Bughin, Director of the McKinsey Global Institute highlight the positive opportunities of the fourth industrial revolution. They point out that the firms who deploy AI for the purpose of driving innovation, rather than for labor substitution and cost cutting, are likely to be the most successful in the long run — as they expand, they will hire new workers. A good alternative read to the more mundane narrative of pure substitution by AI.
The Cautious Case for Climate Optimism (New York Magazine)
David Wallace Wells explains the case for change with fluorescent detail on what a decarbonised economy would need. In a more optimistic take he argues that it is never too late and our collective action can go a long way to arresting the change whether through a reimagined system of agriculture, and overhaul of the transport system or even a planet without meat-eaters.
Get in Touch
- Email me directly kajal@kajallondon.com, always welcome feedback & questions
- Connect on twitter @Kajalnyclon
- Learn more about my work, research and speaking topics at my website and LinkedIn and read previous articles at The Transatlantic Post
About the Transatlantic Post
A monthly editorial on innovation and entrepreneurship. With occasional British satire. Written and edited by Kajal Sanghrajka, Churchill Fellow and Founder of Growth Hub Global. For previous editions go to the Transatlantic Post website.
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